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Alaska Air Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
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Key Takeaways
ALK posted Q4 EPS of $0.43, beating estimates but down 55.7% due to high operating costs.
Operating revenue rose 2.8% to $3.63B, driven by gains in cargo, loyalty and premium travel.
Load factor fell to 81.5% as traffic declined and capacity rose, pressuring efficiency metrics.
Alaska Air Group (ALK - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 43 cents per share, which breezed past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 11 cents but declined 55.7% year over year. High operating costs hurt the bottom line.
Operating revenues of $3.63 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.65 billion. Total revenues jumped 2.8% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 89.4% of the top line and increasing 2% to $3.25 billion. However, it missed our estimate of $3.35 billion.
On a year-over-year basis, cargo and other revenues increased 11% to $146 million, ahead of our estimate of $138 million. Loyalty program other revenues grew 6% year over year to $238 million, well ahead of our estimate of $197 million.
Alaska Air Group Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Alaska Air’s diversified revenue base contributed to the top-line year-over-year growth. Corporate travel increased 9%, and premium revenues grew 7%.
Other Details of ALK’s Q4 Earnings
All comparisons are presented on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted.
Revenue per available seat mile (RASM: a key measure of unit revenues) inched up 0.6% to 15.63 cents despite the prolonged government shutdown. Yield increased 2.9% to 17.15 cents.
Consolidated traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) inched down 0.7% to 18.94 billion. Capacity (measured in available seat miles) rose 2.2% to 23.23 billion. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) fell to 81.5% from 83.8% in the prior-year period. In the fourth quarter, total operating expenses (on a reported basis) increased 3% to $3.56 billion.
Economic fuel price per gallon increased 1.2% to $2.57. Consolidated operating costs per available seat mile (excluding fuel and special items) inched up 1.3%.
Liquidity & Share Buybacks
As of Dec. 31, 2025, Alaska Air had $627 million of cash and cash equivalents compared with $778 million at the end of the prior quarter. ALK exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with long-term debt (net of current portion) of $4.83 billion compared with $4.49 billion at the end of the prior quarter.
During the final quarter of 2025, ALK repurchased 0.7 million shares for $30 million. During the entire 2025, the airline bought back 11.3 million shares for $570 million.
ALK’s Outlook
ALK anticipates the first-quarter 2026 adjusted loss per share to be in the 50 cents-$1.50 band. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss is currently pegged at 34 cents per share. Capacity in the March quarter is projected to be up in the 1% to 2% range from the first-quarter 2025 actuals. Adjusted tax rate is estimated to be 29%.
For 2026, adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the $3.5-$6.5 band. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $4.77 per share, below the mid-point of the guided range. Capacity in the current year is projected to be up in the 2% to 3% range. Capital expenditure is expected in the $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion band. Adjusted tax rate for 2026 is estimated to be in the 26% to 27% range.
Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 31 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.55 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. Earnings decreased 16.22% on a year-over-year basis due to high labor costs.
Revenues in the December-end quarter were $16 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.63 billion and increasing 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 1.2% year over year to $14.6 billion. Revenue growth was impacted by about 2 points due to the government shutdown, mainly in the domestic segment, consistent with the company's disclosure last month.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.90 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.81 and improved 24.2% year over year.
Total operating revenues of $3.09 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.12 billion and decreased 1.6% year over year. JBHT’s fourth-quarter revenue performance was hurt by a 2% and 4% decline in revenue per load excluding fuel surcharge revenues in Intermodal (“JBI”) and Truckload (“JBT”), respectively.
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Alaska Air Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y
Key Takeaways
Alaska Air Group (ALK - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 43 cents per share, which breezed past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 11 cents but declined 55.7% year over year. High operating costs hurt the bottom line.
Operating revenues of $3.63 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.65 billion. Total revenues jumped 2.8% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 89.4% of the top line and increasing 2% to $3.25 billion. However, it missed our estimate of $3.35 billion.
On a year-over-year basis, cargo and other revenues increased 11% to $146 million, ahead of our estimate of $138 million. Loyalty program other revenues grew 6% year over year to $238 million, well ahead of our estimate of $197 million.
Alaska Air Group Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Alaska Air Group price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Alaska Air Group, Inc. Quote
Alaska Air’s diversified revenue base contributed to the top-line year-over-year growth. Corporate travel increased 9%, and premium revenues grew 7%.
Other Details of ALK’s Q4 Earnings
All comparisons are presented on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted.
Revenue per available seat mile (RASM: a key measure of unit revenues) inched up 0.6% to 15.63 cents despite the prolonged government shutdown. Yield increased 2.9% to 17.15 cents.
Consolidated traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) inched down 0.7% to 18.94 billion. Capacity (measured in available seat miles) rose 2.2% to 23.23 billion. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) fell to 81.5% from 83.8% in the prior-year period. In the fourth quarter, total operating expenses (on a reported basis) increased 3% to $3.56 billion.
Economic fuel price per gallon increased 1.2% to $2.57. Consolidated operating costs per available seat mile (excluding fuel and special items) inched up 1.3%.
Liquidity & Share Buybacks
As of Dec. 31, 2025, Alaska Air had $627 million of cash and cash equivalents compared with $778 million at the end of the prior quarter. ALK exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with long-term debt (net of current portion) of $4.83 billion compared with $4.49 billion at the end of the prior quarter.
During the final quarter of 2025, ALK repurchased 0.7 million shares for $30 million. During the entire 2025, the airline bought back 11.3 million shares for $570 million.
ALK’s Outlook
ALK anticipates the first-quarter 2026 adjusted loss per share to be in the 50 cents-$1.50 band. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss is currently pegged at 34 cents per share. Capacity in the March quarter is projected to be up in the 1% to 2% range from the first-quarter 2025 actuals. Adjusted tax rate is estimated to be 29%.
For 2026, adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the $3.5-$6.5 band. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $4.77 per share, below the mid-point of the guided range. Capacity in the current year is projected to be up in the 2% to 3% range. Capital expenditure is expected in the $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion band. Adjusted tax rate for 2026 is estimated to be in the 26% to 27% range.
ALK’s Zacks Rank
Currently, ALK carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Q4 Performances of Other Transportation Companies
Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 31 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.55 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53. Earnings decreased 16.22% on a year-over-year basis due to high labor costs.
Revenues in the December-end quarter were $16 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.63 billion and increasing 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 1.2% year over year to $14.6 billion. Revenue growth was impacted by about 2 points due to the government shutdown, mainly in the domestic segment, consistent with the company's disclosure last month.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.90 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.81 and improved 24.2% year over year.
Total operating revenues of $3.09 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.12 billion and decreased 1.6% year over year. JBHT’s fourth-quarter revenue performance was hurt by a 2% and 4% decline in revenue per load excluding fuel surcharge revenues in Intermodal (“JBI”) and Truckload (“JBT”), respectively.